05 Nov 2020 [Common conclusion] On 05 November 2020, the OPEC secretariat held the 4th high-level meeting of the OPEC-India dialogue via video conference. IOC Secretary-General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo and Italian Oil and Gas Minister and Steel Minister Dharmendra Pradhan co-chaired. Before the opening on March 9, 2020 (Monday), the Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures market fell by more than 1,300 points and erupted due to a combination of coronavirus concerns and the oil price war.  On Monday, March 9, 2020, global stock markets experienced a significant drop due to a combination of panic over the COVID 19 pandemic and the price fight between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The Dow Jones fell above 2,000 points or 7.8%, exceeded the futures market forecasts and became the biggest loss of points in its history.  Other stock markets were also affected: the S-P 500 contracted by 7.6% and the NASDAQ Composite by 7.2%. Italy`s FTSE MIB suffered the biggest percentage decline and the index fell 11%.  In the United States, circuit breaker drops were triggered to avoid a stock market crash, resulting in 15-minute pauses.  In response to falling prices, several oil producers in North America have cut off drilling for new wells.
 Shale oil producers in North America generally demand oil prices of more than $40 per barrel to maintain development, and cuts to new oil fields are expected to offset expected growth in U.S. oil production.  At $35 per barrel of crude oil, only 16 shale producers were able to operate new wells profitably, and most producers expected a price per barrel of $55 to $65 in 2020.  Consultant Wood Mackenzie estimated that for Brent of $25 per barrel, 10% of global oil production would not be able to cover its core costs, particularly heavy crude oil producers such as Venezuela, Mexico and the oil sands in Canada, where the price fell below $5 per barrel.  Forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that due to the price war, U.S. crude oil production would fall from 13.2 million bpd in May 2020 to 12.8 million bpd in December 2020, before falling to 12.7 million bpd in 2021.  Given current fundamentals and the consensus on the market outlook, the conference therefore decided to recommend to the 8th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting that the adjustment levels agreed at the 177th conference and the 7th OPEC and non-OPEC meetings be extended for the remainder of the year.
It was also agreed to recommend at the 8th OPEC and OPEC Ministerial Meeting a new 1.5 mb/d adjustment by 30 June 2020, to be applied on a pro-rata basis between OPEC (1.0 mb/d) and non-OPEC producing countries (0.5 mb/d) participating in the cooperation declaration.